HCPSS MPIA Request #2019-070

Requested Information
In the document titled "Projection Accuracy Report" dated February 22, 2018; the following is stated concerning projections: The projection methodology used by the HCPSS is based on historic cohort survival ratios. For the purposes of the school system, a cohort is a group of students at a specific grade level. This methodology looks at past student population patterns within the county to construct survival ratios in projecting a particular grade’s migration through the school system. Cohort-survival ratios project how many second graders will result from last year’s first graders, how many third graders will result from last year’s second graders, and continues until the number of twelfth graders from last year’s eleventh graders is predicted. Figure 1 below illustrates a cohort-survival ratio. In the example below, the rate of 1.15 can be used to predict how many second graders will result from the previous year’s first graders. This rate, which is collected over multiple years is then multiplied by the current year’s student population at the first grade level to project the following year’s second grade student population. This calculation is done for each grade level, at each school. The cohort survival ratios are calculated based on actual addresses and are aggregated by school attendance area to maintain comparability regardless of any changes in school attendance area boundaries.

As stated above, please provide the calculation for each grade level, at each school.
Date Received
Response Notes

Responsive to this request, no existing record contains the cohort-survival ratio for each grade and school. However, the School Planning Office indicates the Enrollment Projection Methodology as provided to Howard County Council members during a July 2018 Council Work Session, and provided previously under MPIA 2019-030 contains the formula used to calculate these ratios.

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